Approx. 12 mins read time

Markets move away from safe havens seeking growth from economic recovery

It is hard to comprehend only a year ago we were all facing such unprecedented times, with the introduction of nationwide lockdowns and some of the highest periods of market volatility we have seen in decades. In March last year, at the peak of the market sell off, the MSCI World index was down 21%, with the FTSE 100 showing a loss of over 33%. Looking at where markets are today, it is evident just how fast markets can shift. 

This year commenced with financial markets moving away from safe havens and stocks which provided positive returns through the worst of the pandemic. Instead veering towards the ‘cheap’ stocks, from those companies which are most likely to benefit from the economic recovery as the world slowly comes out of lockdown.

Market performance

As the chart above shows, the first quarter of 2021 saw a different market environment compared to the final quarter of 2020. Whereas the previous quarter presented us with double digit returns from a very positive market period, this time – whilst equity markets remained largely positive, we experienced more volatility, particularly in the first 6 weeks of the year. Expectations of higher inflation, resulting from the economic recovery, led government bond markets to suffer. This resulted in a much flatter market environment compared to recent months.

In the US, President Biden didn’t waste any time after his inauguration reversing many of his predecessor’s policies. Biden made it clear the rollout of the vaccination program was his priority with a target of 100 million doses to be administered in the first hundred days. This target has since increased to 200 million doses. The new president also put through an unprecedented $1.9 trillion support package, and at the end of the quarter, announced a further $2.25 trillion for the “American Jobs Plan”, putting the onus on corporate taxes to fund this. A move significantly different to that expected from Trump. The vast level of stimulus support has caused fears over inflation, moving 5 year inflation protected treasury bills to 2.5%, which is above the Federal Reserve’s target of 2%.

This rise in US Treasury yields has caused a selloff in the recently loved tech and growth stocks which then trickled into other areas of the market given their newfound size and influence. The markets have seemingly shifted away from favouring the ‘hotter’ growth and tech areas, instead favouring value style companies such as energy and materials businesses. The markets are now pricing in a post pandemic boom, which has led some hard-hit value stocks to reach levels above the pre-pandemic prices. This may be an exaggeration of optimism in the markets, so our investment partners remain cautious, seeking high quality businesses whilst retaining a robust research process.

The vaccine roll out has been successful in the developed regions such as the US and the UK. In other parts of the world, most notably Europe and Asia, it has been slow paired with concerns around the safety and efficacy of some vaccines. In these places new measures of restrictions continue, delaying the much-anticipated economic recovery. To aid in this delay, the European Central Bank has extended the support line and noted if inflation were to experience a rise it would be transitory.

China is headed towards becoming the largest economy in the world, and whilst being the first country to identify Covid-19, it is now concentrating on the next phase in its economic cycle, focusing on growth. With recent crackdowns and tensions around the claims to territory in the South China Sea and Taiwan, financial markets have experienced volatility as seen in the dip in the MSCI Asia index.

FCFP Portfolio Performance

The charts above shows the performance of the FCFP Portfolios over the most recent quarter and since the inception of the portfolios respectively. The short term underperformance against the FTSE All share shown in the first chart, is a result of UK Markets continuing to bounce back from the lows of last year, where the UK was the most deeply impacted region for the majority of the 2020. In the second chart we can see the severe drop in the FTSE All share as a result of the Coronavirus pandemic particularly around March of 2020, when market sell off reached its peak.

The second, slightly longer term chart since the beginning of 2020 demonstrates the importance of having a well-diversified portfolio to ensure a proposition is able to withstand the short term effects of market volatility on the value of a portfolio, we see all 3 FCFP portfolios, which have the global mandate experienced a much shorter drop during the market sell off, which in turn has meant the longer term returns to date continue to be greater than the FTSE whilst undergoing a significantly less volatile journey despite the sharp bounce back in the UK Index’ performance. Therefore, whilst the portfolios have all achieved a slightly lower return compared to the FTSE All share over the past quarter, this remains within our expectations due to the lower level of volatility and the greater diversification demonstrated in our portfolios.

The FCFP portfolios remain to have a long term outlook towards investment returns whilst keeping volatility within our target range.

Looking ahead

The world is recovering in staggered phases from the negative impact Covid-19 has had on the economy with the UK and US seemingly leading the way. Whilst the recovery seems imminent, our investment management partners emphasise the markets still have plenty of uncertainty priced in. Investors looking towards smoother long-term returns should be seeking to invest in companies with more stable earnings and strong balance sheets. It is believed China and the Far Eastern markets will be the main drivers of growth across global markets, but they also carry additional risks. Our investment partners’ research suggests after the world recovers from the pandemic, we will return to a slow growth, low inflation world. Given the increased levels of government borrowing during the pandemic, we are expecting central banks to take their time in the raising of interest rates. 

We expect the focus on productivity will remain in general, and technology will continue to be crucial for any developments in efficiency and productivity. FCFP portfolios continue to have sustainability built into their core investing in these areas, particularly in companies which focus on sustainability and technology simultaneously. 

In conclusion, it is our view most investors will return to the high-quality growth companies which have suffered in the last quarter. Our partnered investment managers continue to be on the lookout for high-quality investments as part of their investment planning services.  They focus on businesses with stability in their earnings and robust balance sheets, so our clients’ portfolios remain robust in challenging environments.

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